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Getting a handle on the Chinese economy

Monday, August 31, 2015

The stock market gyrations of the last week-or-so were somewhat crazy. From a panic crash to creeping back to ‘normal’? It all seemed to relate to speculation about China.

The follow-up analysis is as up-and-down as was the stock market. The blog ‘Peak Prosperity’ is VERY pessimistic about China, saying China’s debt is now 300 per cent of GDP and in Spanish/Greek territory. And there’s an even more pessimistic assessment saying that China’s economic data is unreliable.

Rowan Callick from The Australian is one of Australia’s most experienced observers of Asia. Rowan predicts a bumpy road for China from an investment and export economy to a consumption and services economy. He describes all the internal and external problems China faces. However, he indicates it will continue to grow, albeit more slowly.

Our own China expert, John Findley, provides a unique view from ‘on the ground’ in China. John has been doing business in China for more than 30 years and recently spent several months travelling widely across the country. His perceptions provide a great insight. His blog post is here.


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